Big wave of massive job creation heading our way

Big wave riders are crazy! Being towed by a jet ski only to be let go in front of a 50 ft monster wave is not everyones’ idea of fun. One of these waves can plunge a surfer 15m below the surface, spinning them around like an industrial strength washing machine — leaving the surfer struggling to work out which way is up.

But being held underwater by two or more consecutive waves is probably more like the heavy duty spin cycle. And yet, for some crazies, the Monster Wave is the ultimate opportunity. Just like when you were that nervously excited kid riding their first wave — albeit the ‘monsters’ were only slightly above your head.

Current disruption to the world of work is like a set of big waves — but alarmist news headlines forgot to mention the massive wave of job creation coming our way! So, cut yourself some slack for believing the common dystopian line, and fast forward to your morning espresso to think clearly about the future of work.

Zooming out I can see two waves — massive job destruction and massive job creation. As Wave 1 breaks on the labour market and pushes toward the automation of jobs, Wave 2 will create new jobs and industries.

Automation also complements labor, raises output in ways that leads to higher demand for labor, and interacts with adjustments in labor supply (Autor 2015).

I said it: ‘massive job destruction’. We are witnessing astounding innovation in the production process — widespread automation and emerging AI.

Some jobs are more easily automated, particularly those with routinised tasks, while non-routine tasks tend to be more resistant. This is creating new opportunities for early adopters, while some companies cling to business as usual.

It just occurred to me, what’s AI 2.0? — perhaps Blended Intelligence (BI) def. — the right mix of human and artificial intelligence to maximise customer engagement (okay, I just made that up). Behold, there will be new jobs working in the BI industry.

The point is, life long learning is not negotiable for the modern worker.

Warning!! Big public and private sector organisations who isolate themselves from platform ecosystems won’t survive — they will be dis-intermediated by startup ‘garage boy’ in partnership with his favourite platform. Okay, maybe garage boy actually works for Google, but you get the point.

The biggest mistake I currently see thought leaders making is using a narrow lens to understand the impact of automation on human capital outlook.

The future of work is complex and multifaceted. Which is why every organisation urgently needs what I’ve called Occupational Forecasting (OF) — a technique for (1)understanding the impact factors on an occupation, and (2) developing occupation scenarios.

Step 1 — Map four impact factors:

Step 2 — Validate via local data collection methods, such as:

Step 3— Develop occupation scenarios, for example:

Occupational Forecasting is not a way to predict the future, but it can help you make better decisions and harness opportunities for the future of work.

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